Rystad Energy expects global upstream merger and acquisition activity in 2026 to fall below 2025 levels, citing market uncertainty and execution challenges. The firm estimates that nearly $152 billion in upstream opportunities remained available as of January, but completion will depend on buyer confidence and transaction timing. Global upstream deal value reached about $170 billion in 2025, down 17 percent year on year, with deal count declining to 466. North America dominated activity, accounting for roughly two thirds of total value.
Most regions recorded declines during 2025, including Africa, Europe, the Middle East, Oceania, and Russia, while Asia and South America posted increases driven by LNG and joint venture transactions. Rystad attributed the broader slowdown to low and volatile oil prices, which widened valuation gaps between buyers and sellers. Brent crude fell from early year highs before stabilizing near year end, while WTI followed a similar downward trend. Looking ahead, Rystad expects North America to remain central to upstream M&A, shaped by shale consolidation, private capital deployment, and growing interest in gas and LNG assets, even as international deal flow remains uneven and concentrated.
Why it matters
The outlook signals a more selective upstream investment environment shaped by pricing volatility, capital discipline, and regional consolidation dynamics.
Source Attribution
Source: Rystad Energy
